Here’s the thing: if vibes were policy, this meeting would already be a smash hit. Prime Minister Mark Carney sitting down with Volodymyr Zelensky in Halifax “ahead of peace talks hosted by the U.S. president this weekend” is very much giving serious geopolitics but make it coastal. Canada is the supportive bestie, Ukraine is the exhausted but still-fighting main character, and the U.S. is, once again, trying to run the group project while insisting it’s totally under control. But when you actually look at what’s on the table — and what is, like, literally falling from the sky — the odds of a clean, satisfying outcome feel… complicated.
Zelensky says the U.S.-backed peace plan is “about 90 per cent ready,” which sounds reassuring until you realize that last 10 per cent includes “security guarantees and territorial issues in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.” That’s not a footnote, that’s the entire plot. He says “much can be accomplished between Ukraine and the U.S.,” but also accuses Russia of “dragging its feet and trying to waste time.” And honestly? When “almost 500 drones and 40 missiles” are hitting Kyiv right before talks, the message is being delivered extremely loudly — and violently.
Zelensky’s quote says everything: “Russian representatives hold long talks, in reality the ‘Kinzal’ and ‘Shaheds’ speak for them.” Like, peace negotiations happening alongside ballistic missiles and hypersonic aeroballistic strikes are not exactly compromise era. Russia calls it a “massive strike” on energy and military infrastructure. Ukraine is pulling people from rubble, with children among the wounded. Very chill.
Then there’s the Donbas situation, aka “the most difficult point,” according to Zelensky. Ukraine is open to withdrawing troops if Russia also pulls back and the area becomes a demilitarized zone monitored internationally. There’s talk of a “free economic zone,” referendums, and even demilitarizing areas around Zaporizhzhia. On paper, it’s policy-wonk plausible. In reality, Russia “has given no indication that it will agree to withdrawal,” and is insisting Ukraine give up more territory. That’s not negotiating — that’s demands.
Yes, Zelensky says “we have significantly brought most positions closer together,” and claims “all other consensus… has been found.” But he admits the U.S. hasn’t accepted Ukraine’s counter-proposals yet, calls parts of the American plan “not entirely realistic,” and asks, “How can you have joint commerce with the Russians after everything?” Valid.
Back home, Conservative Leader Pierre P. has consistently said any negotiations must include Ukraine and allow Ukrainians to decide their future. Translation: no backroom deal, no cutting Kyiv out. He’s staying quiet on whether this round of talks will land anywhere meaningful — which, honestly, makes sense.
So what does this mean for the Carney–Zelensky meeting? Symbolically, it matters. Canada has committed $6.5 billion in military support and has been a staunch ally since February 2022. Strategically, though, success does not hinge on Halifax. It hinges on whether Russia stops letting missiles do the talking, and whether security guarantees actually mean something enforceable — something closer to NATO’s Article 5, not vibes, vibes, and more vibes.
Right now, this doesn’t feel like a breakthrough. It feels like a tense pause between explosions. The meetings might narrow gaps, clarify drafts, and keep diplomacy alive. But as long as talks happen in Florida while Kyiv burns, the chances of a neat, decisive outcome? Let’s just say they’re not giving final-season resolution. They’re giving to be continued… with higher stakes and zero commercial breaks.
XOXO,
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